OBR predicts UK economy will shrink by over a third

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned that the UK economy could shrink by 35% this quarter due to the COVID-19 crisis.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned that the UK economy could shrink by 35% this quarter due to the COVID-19 crisis.

The OBR said that the outcome was modelled on an assumption that the current lockdown would last for three months. It stated that a three-month lockdown followed by three months of partial restrictions would trigger an economic decline of 35.1% in the quarter to June alone.

The lockdown would push up the UK's borrowing bill to an estimated £273 billion this financial year, or 14% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

However, the OBR said extra spending by the Treasury to support the economy was crucial to limit economic damage.

The OBR's estimate followed a global economic forecast published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which predicted a 3% contraction in global growth.

Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Economist at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), said:

'This makes for bleak reading and stresses the need for the right policies to support our economy through this crisis. The need for co-ordinated global action to rebuild confidence has rarely been greater.

'The government will also need to work with businesses and many parts of civil society here at home to create a plan to revive the economy once the lockdown is lifted.'

Internet link: OBR press release

Testimonial

Subscribe to our newsletter

Sign up to receive our free monthly newsletter

Why not register to receive our Monthly Newswire? You'll receive our monthly email packed full of essential business news and handy tax tips to help save you money

Register

Latest Business News

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned that the UK economy could shrink by 35% this quarter due to the COVID-19 crisis.

The OBR said that the outcome was modelled on an assumption that the current lockdown would last for three months. It stated that a three-month lockdown followed by three months of partial restrictions would trigger an economic decline of 35.1% in the quarter to June alone.

The lockdown would push up the UK's borrowing bill to an estimated £273 billion this financial year, or 14% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

However, the OBR said extra spending by the Treasury to support the economy was crucial to limit economic damage.

The OBR's estimate followed a global economic forecast published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which predicted a 3% contraction in global growth.

Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Economist at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), said:

'This makes for bleak reading and stresses the need for the right policies to support our economy through this crisis. The need for co-ordinated global action to rebuild confidence has rarely been greater.

'The government will also need to work with businesses and many parts of civil society here at home to create a plan to revive the economy once the lockdown is lifted.'

Internet link: OBR press release